In the this series of Nuggets related to The Probability of the Messianic Prophecies I have been working my way through selected Messianic prophecies for which I can realistically determine the mathematical odds for each prophecy coming to pass. I led you through a series of eight prophecies where I used mathematical methods to determine the likelihood of each prophecy being fulfilled. Then in the previous Nugget I calculated the odds on all eight prophecies I had selected being applied to one and the same person. I demonstrated the mathematical process involved to calculate that. Then I told you how when I tried to take a short cut and simply double the odds for a supposed second batch of eight prophecies, I was told that was not in accord with pure mathematical principles. A fact which I was already aware of from my course in Applied Statistics at University. I was merely seeking to be practical and not make things complicated. However I was reminded in no uncertain terms that I should follow this approach through using correct methodology.
Now with this Nugget I am beginning a second set of eight prophecies in order to demonstrate something remarkable to you. You can follow this series as you did the last eight or you can wait until I have finished this second batch of eight prophecies, in other words the Sixteenth Prophecy, before you bother reading the full Nuggets again. The choice is yours. I will continue to pursue the facts and demonstrate the conclusion in a way which satisfies the purists among us because that is what I am like; I like to be thorough.
The Nineth Prophecy
I will raise up one of your descendants . . . When your life is complete and you go to join your ancestors, I will raise up your offspring after you, who will come forth from your body, and I will fortify his kingdom. He will build a Temple dedicated to my Name, and I will make the throne of his kingdom last forever.
2 Samuel 7:12-13
All those listed above include fourteen generations from Abraham to David, fourteen from David to the Babylonian exile, and fourteen from the Babylonian exile to the Messiah.
Matthew 1:17
From 2 Samuel 3 we learn David had six sons:
These are the sons who were born to David in Hebron:
The oldest was Amnon, whose mother was Ahinoam from Jezreel.
The second was Daniel, whose mother was Abigail, the widow of Nabal from Carmel.
The third was Absalom, whose mother was Maacah, the daughter of Talmai, king of Geshur.
The fourth was Adonijah, whose mother was Haggith.
The fifth was Shephatiah, whose mother was Abital.
The sixth was Ithream, whose mother was Eglah, David’s wife.
These sons were all born to David in Hebron.
2 Samuel 3:2-5
We are told that there were 1,300,000 men in the nation at that time (2 Samuel 24:9) so we now have all the information we need to work out the odds of the Messiah coming from the descendants of David. We can calculate the probability of the Messiah arising from among the descendants of David. However a careful reading of Matthew 1:17 suggests that we have another set of 14 generations to take into account from Abraham to David. That would increase our generations from 28 to 42 as well as adding a further difficulty in terms of estimating population sizes and birth rates and stats for the male / female ratios in the population given cultural factors and external forces such as warfare. While the span of generations from Abraham to David ought to be included I choose to leave them out, along with the generations from Adam to Abraham. If included they would merely lessen the chances because the Messiah could have come at anytime in those first two generational spans of time. But we know that He didn’t. So I have chosen the option of limiting the generations selected for this calculation to the last 28 generations in the genealogy of Christ.
Now let’s put the stats together:
6 sons x 28 generations : 1,300,000 x 28 generations.
168 : 3,640,000 which yields a resultant probability of 1:216,666
Of course this is assuming that the rate of male births per generation remains constant as well, matching a constant rate of population growth. It does not allow for a major downturn in the population growth or a major reduction in the number of sons born per family in a single generation. But whichever way we look at it, we can still be confident that we are in the ball park with our estimate of the probability factor.
Let’s reduce the probability ratio to 1:100,000 to keep the maths simple and to reduce the possibility of any of you claiming that I am deliberately inflating the odds.